Fine Wine in 2026: Gloom, Green Shoots, and a Global Reset

What is happening in the world of fine wine? The noise is all gloom – no one is buying, no one is ever going to buy again, we are all doomed. Times are undoubtedly very tough for the wine industry right now, and fine wine is far from immune. In a conversation today with a buyer for a major monopoly, he remarked that four or five years ago they were selling more than 20 cases of the top wine from one of Italy's leading producers; in 2025 they have sold just four bottles.

Looking at the data rather than simply relying on anecdote, the Liv-Ex 50 is down over 16% over the last five years, a rather stunning and disheartening statistic, if hardly surprising given the current state of geopolitics and the global economy.

Nevertheless, if we widen our focus somewhat, there are encouraging signs, maybe even some hope, even if those of us in the UK and of a certain age will undoubtedly remember the "green shoots of recovery" promised by Norman Lamont, which inevitably withered and died, so overoptimism is always a risk.



Let us define our terms. What do we mean by fine wine? Sometimes, it is defined by price – wine over £x is defined as "fine". The problem is that £x can be a very variable figure, sometimes as low as £20. From this perspective, price alone is an inadequate measure. Instead, I propose intent. A fine wine is one that you buy not for immediate consumption, but for a later event. This can be buying en primeur, at auction, or from a fine wine merchant, but in each case, the assumption s that it is not a simple Tuesday night wine. It is something worth contemplating, worth anticipating, worth waiting for. Historically, this category has been dominated by France - and particularly Bordeaux - which has been struggling for several years.

Our next task is to look more closely at the timeline. The five-year Liv-Ex 50 is certainly miserable (-16.2%), as is the two (-15%). But over a shorter period, things look, if not rosy, then at least not quite as dark. The one-year time index only shows a drop of 3.6%, while the year to date is flat. It is, of course, too early to assess whether this is a trend rather than simply a point observation, but it is nonetheless a ray of light, however faint.

It is also worth considering what was happening in that heady time-period five years ago, when it felt like life as we knew it had ended, and never again would we be able to get together with friends to share wonderful bottles. People did not stop buying wine during Covid – far from it. The wine market – like fine art– surged. We WANTED to spend, to enjoy, and there was a certain fin-de-siecle sense – we didn't know if we would live to have to pay the bills, so might as well spend it!

Justin Knock MW, founder of Elevage Wines, agrees with this assessment. His experience is that fine wine consumers are still drinking, and probably still drinking more or less the same amount, but have been buying less because they overstocked. Mick O'Connell MW, Bonhams Head of Wine for UK and Europe, is seeing a similar phenomenon, commenting, "one notable headwind is the volume of relatively young wine acquired at peak pricing over the last cycle. A significant amount of stock purchased at release or shortly thereafter is now sitting in collectors' cellars globally." He adds that fine wine, like any other luxury category, needs a healthy turnover of the assets, to establish a clear pathway to liquidity. His greatest challenge, he suggests, is attracting sellers while simultaneously encouraging realistic price expectations.



The light gets more obvious if we look beyond Bordeaux, to the Liv-Ex 100, which is "only" 41% Bordeaux, with Burgundy, Champagne and Tuscany in particular making significant contributions. Unlike the Liv-Ex 50, this index has been broadly flat over five years, over the past 12 months, and with signs of a small uptick in the year to date.

US-based private client advisor Maureen Downey is seeing this widening of focus with some of her newer collectors, who are still principally focused on Burgundy but are not jumping straight to DRC, instead taking their time to explore other Burgundies, as well as Champagne, Piedmont and Tuscany.

Although times have certainly been difficult, Bonham's O'Connell finds reasons for excitement. He argues that wine is now a global asset class, and at the same time as the origins of sought after wines becoming more, if not global, then at least not quite as Bordeaux-centric, so are the purchasers of fine wine becoming more global – collectors are located across Europe, North America, Asia and increasingly in the Middle East, which he feels have created far more liquidity and transparency than ever before. I have seen this myself, with cellars I have represented selling to purchasers in Hong Kong, New York, Zurich and London within the same sale.

There also seems to be a growing willingness among collectors to explore other regions. Both Justin Knock and I have observed collectors being willing to venture well beyond the traditional, with Assyrtiko, Etnas Bianco and Rosso, Soave and some of the high-end, more elegant Australian wines growing in appeal. In discussing this with Knock, I suggested that one driver may be the rising prices these wines now command; collectors find them, to quote the old commercial, "reassuringly expensive".

Common to all the people I spoke with for this article was a sense that times are tough, but that there are positive signs. As Sarah Abbott MW of Swirl Group explains, nothing compares to the transcendent experience that comes with sharing a bottle of stunning wine, with good friends. It is this - the joy fine wine offers, not just in its essence but in the communality of the experience - that ultimately sustains the market.

Isn't that, in the end, why we love it?