A World Beyond China

In May 2010, new to wine writing and very wet behind the ears, I attended a seminar on the potential of the Chinese market for imported wine. The excitement was palpable: I recall Bruce Tyrrell describing it as "a golden goose", as China was predicted to become one of the future gravitational centres for the global wine trade.

But, while the Aussies, the Bordelais, and others once did quite well out of a prolific gifting culture among the upper-middle classes and well-connected, volumes have declined significantly in recent years. According to the IWSR, this contraction will likely continue through the remainder of the decade as "China continues to underperform, with the real estate crisis and weaker economic outlook significantly reducing the scope for total beverage alcohol (TBA) growth."

However, Emily Neill, Chief Operating Officer, research and operations, added: "In this slower-growth, value-led environment, staying invested in Asia's beverage alcohol markets is vital. The region is evolving, with new opportunities emerging."

And wine producers have been listening. A growing number of export-driven brands are investing in emerging markets in the wider region, particularly across Southeast Asia and parts of South Asia, as well as other East Asian growth markets. The impetus to diversify portfolios has never been more compelling, despite the risks.



"In my opinion, the potential of Asia Pacific (APAC) is not huge in the short to medium term, but it is certainly considerably bigger in the longer term," says Luca Vitiello, commercial director at Bertinga. The Tuscan producer began to invest in 2021, building relationships in several destinations including Singapore, South Korea and Thailand.

"The next ten years will be crucial to invest - not as a single producer but primarily as national or regional wine organisations and consortia - in wine education, wine training, wine sales training and, first and foremost, in facilitating the understanding of how wine can be integrated in the local eating and drinking culture."

New possibilities

Among developing markets, South Korea remains a headline destination - the nation, despite an inevitable drop in TBA volumes following the pandemic boom, boasts relatively high levels of alcohol consumption per capita by global standards. Meanwhile, GDP was recorded at around US$1.93 trillion in recent estimates, placing it among the larger economies in Asia.

"We entered the South Korean market due to a growing interest in premium imported wines and its openness to new origins beyond the traditional European strongholds. South Korea stood out as a dynamic, trend-driven market with an increasingly sophisticated consumer base, particularly among younger urban professionals," explains Pedro Ribeiro, CEO and winemaker at Rocim in Alentejo.



He continues: "South Korea is transitioning from a purely aspirational, premium-driven market to one that is gradually normalising wine consumption; I was pleasantly surprised by the level of curiosity and willingness to explore lesser-known wine regions. Compared to more established export markets, Korean consumers were less bound by traditional hierarchies such as Bordeaux or Tuscany. While brand recognition still matters, there was a refreshing openness to discovery."

According to Francesco Ricasoli, South Korea was historically dominated by the retail sector: department stores within malls, such as Lotte or Hyundai, accounted for significant volumes.

"However, what we have noticed in recent years is the boom in the restaurant industry, typical of markets transitioning from immature to mature phases," he observes. Meanwhile, barriers to entry include "complex distribution structures, high import duties and taxes, and strong competition from other wine-producing countries," adds Ribeiro.

There is also potential for growth in Thailand, say insiders, although high structural barriers, including very high taxes and poor infrastructure, are frequently mentioned by stakeholders involved in the market. Weingut Dorli Muhr started exporting in 2019, after signing a contract with a major hotel group.

"There is big potential here, but only in the very long term," says founder Muhr.



"The imported wine market is in the very early stages of development – wine is the exception rather than the rule, and consumption is mostly driven by tourists in the many hotels, and by locals only in high-end restaurants."

IWSR data points to steady if unspectacular expansion, with imported still wine volumes growing by around 3% in 2024 and forecast to continue at a similar pace through to 2029, off a small base of wealthy consumers.

Yet the challenges on the ground are not simply economic, but cultural and educational too.

"I was surprised about the lack of knowledge among staff about wine," notes Muhr. She adds that young Blaufränkisch, bursting with marked acidity, does not generally appeal to the local palate, and therefore she "usually ships more mature vintages" to Thai clients.

A fragmented opportunity

Both Vietnam and India are also being framed as potential high-growth frontiers - albeit significant barriers remain. The IWSR identifies the former among a cluster of Southeast Asian markets expected to deliver incremental growth in the coming years, supported by favourable demographics and rising incomes. However, the regulatory environment is tightening – the government has approved plans to raise alcohol taxes significantly over the coming years, potentially reaching 90% by 2031.

In contrast, an EU-India free trade agreement was politically concluded in 2026, with India agreeing to a progressive reduction in tariffs once in force. "This will in turn encourage the introduction of wine on the market at more affordable prices," says Simone François, owner of Castello di Querceto.

"To facilitate distribution, a reduction in significant domestic taxes on wine would also certainly help. In any case, the growth of the Indian economy, combined with a very large potential consumer base, can increase awareness and perception of Italian wine. We believe India currently offers the strongest growth potential among Asian markets."

Yet François, like many stakeholders, recognises that the era of relying on a single growth engine is over. China, despite all the hype, ultimately proved to be a disappointment; so too could it be with India. Thus, the focus must shift to accepting modest gains from different geographies in the short to medium term, while maintaining a plurality of approaches. Gold-hungry prospectors chasing the next big windfall are likely to go hungry. It's the well-informed tortoise that wins the long game.