Wine Market Predictions 2026: A Fool's Errand?

It is with a heavy heart that I attempt a précis of the forces likely to shape the global wine market in 2026. The industry I fell in love with - anchored in more than eight millennia of history - is under acute strain. Wine consumption has been on a long-term downward trajectory in key markets, a pattern that shows little sign of reversing in the next 12 months.

According to IWSR data, volumes declined across all the world's top ten markets, with major reductions in China - still wine volumes fell by nearly 100 million cases between 2018 and 2023. Meanwhile, great swathes of vineyards are being pulled up in once thriving viticultural powerhouses such as California and Bordeaux. Against this backdrop, summoning optimism is no easy task. Predicting a clear-cut recovery - or even a coherent direction of travel besides decline - can feel, at times, like a fool's errand.

Yet as the CEO of Vinexposium, Rodolphe Lameyse, reminds us, the drop in overall consumption "started 20 years ago," reflecting a complex set of cultural and social changes. His prescription for remaining relevant? Accept that no-and-low is a valid wine category, maintain a long-term perspective, and, crucially, "rethink traditional models while staying true to the culture and enjoyment of wine," he added.

"Our story isn't over. It's just evolving," Lameyse counseled in 2025. The question, then, is not whether wine will change - but where is it evolving to?



The Trump effect

At least one thing seems clear: geopolitical tensions and shifting trade regimes will continue to impact global demand in 2026. Tariffs imposed by the US have materially impacted European wine imports, weakening demand in the midst of ongoing court challenges and legal disputes over the validity of the Trump tariffs imposed last year. Yet diversified market strategies are providing some relief to producers able to navigate these headwinds, wary of repeating the mistakes of old.

Australia's erstwhile reliance on the Red Dragon is a case in point. Despite the lifting of punitive tariffs in 2024, companies were far more hesitant to rush back in and commit significant resources to expanding distribution.

According to Jamie Bennett, MD at Berton Vineyards: "There was an initial surge of optimism as we began refilling the supply chain to China, but it's become clear the market has moved on in many respects." Therefore the estate is pursuing a "balanced global footprint, with diversification remaining a key pillar of our strategy moving forward."

2026 is therefore likely to be a year of further market diversification, as headline destinations - China and the US chief among them - remain volatile.



This is particularly vital as emerging economies provide a large consumer base of under 50, upwardly mobile professionals - India and Brazil, for example. Demographically, wine's traditional base is ageing in mature markets. Yet younger cohorts are not entering the category in sufficient numbers in western societies to replace older drinkers - the "mindful drinking" ethos is likely to compound this shift in 2026. Financial pressures – including cost-of-living concerns – also factor into this moderation; inflation remains above the target level set by national banks in many economies. Taken together, these structural shifts suggest that flexibility will become the most valuable business asset in 2026, where stakeholders must align marketing strategies with evolving consumer behaviour rather than hoping for a dramatic revitalisation of consumption.

Competition and substitution

Meanwhile, both Ready-to-Drink (RTD) beverages and Functional Drinks remain the most threatening competitive force facing wine in 2026. IWSR data reveals how RTDs have steadily taken share from traditional categories: global RTD volumes doubled their market presence from 2019 to 2024, while still wine's share declined from 11% to 10% in the same period - forecasts point to further slide to 9% by 2029. Indeed, their traction in markets such as the US, Japan and Australia has already eclipsed wine in certain contexts, and in some countries RTDs are expected to overtake wine volume entirely by the end of the decade.

Nevertheless, the rise of low- and no-alcohol wines represents an opportunity for producers to engage health-focused consumers constructively, lest winegrowers run the risk of becoming obsolete in this rapidly-changing world.

There is also some tentative good news from the purveyors of the fine and rare. Although consumption volumes are contracting, within the fine wine market there have been some signs of stabilisation, likely to continue through 2026. According to a recent report by Wine Cap: "After two years of consistent declines, the fine wine market hinted at an early reversal in the second half of 2025, with Champagne being the first region to indicate a small upturn, in its first month-on-month gain in a year in June.

"Champagne's strong recognisability, cellaring capacity, and relatively accessible entry points have positioned it well for a return to growth. Momentum characterised the Italian fine wine market too, with the Tuscan region gaining traction as investors looked to Brunello and Super Tuscans like Sassicaia, Ornellaia, and Masseto." And, while analysts caution against over-interpretation of short-term gains, these patterns suggest a market transitioning from broad decline toward selective repricing and inventory rebalancing.

So is there really cause for optimism? I would argue that there is - albeit a qualified one. This wonderful, if undeniably flawed, business faces a complex interplay of contraction and opportunity in 2026. Producers are painfully aware that structural consumption decline will not be swiftly reversed, and yet progressive wineries are responding with innovation in low-alcohol categories, market diversification, and adept navigation of trade dynamics. RTDs and Functional Drinks will continue their long march, however, placing unprecedented strain on the more conservative parts of our industry to formulate a strategy that recognises shifting global preferences, unlocking value in emerging areas of demand.

Thus the choice facing the global wine sector is clear. Adapt - or risk irrelevance.