Swimming Against the Tide

Dragged down by steep contractions in the US and China, the global wine trade is hardly in the rudest of health. Yet there is still money to be made in the markets of tomorrow, as James Lawrence discovers.

Short of consuming a generous serving of Prozac, it can be hard to remain optimistic about the current state of the global wine trade. According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), total wine consumption slipped a further 2.7% in 2025 to 208 million hectolitres - the lowest level since 1957.

Meanwhile, nine of the world's ten largest wine-consuming markets registered declines, as a combination of shifting lifestyle patterns, moderation trends and economic woes made a sizeable dent in the global appetite for wine. Recent data from the IWSR, covering the first half of 2026 across 21 key markets, showed that still wine volumes fell by 4% year-on-year, while total beverage alcohol (TBA) volumes declined by 1%.

When I started writing in 2011, China and the US were on the cusp of something quite extraordinary: wine consumption was growing steadily in America, while China's wine boom was gathering real momentum. The energy and excitement that defined this wonderful business in my formative years were infectious. How different things look today.

Yet, as the IWSR reminds us, not every country is turning away from wine. The two most important markets are, granted, in decline: still wine volumes fell 6% in the US and 9% in China, amid economic malaise and demographic shifts. But remove those two powerhouses from the equation and TBA volumes across the remaining markets actually expanded by an admittedly modest 1% in H1 2026.

"The global beverage alcohol market has never been uniform, but this most recent data points to a growing disconnect between American and Chinese consumers and the rest of the world," noted IWSR president and managing director Marten Lodewijks.

And so it is to the rest of the world that our focus must return. For export-driven wine producers, the race is on to identify - and invest in - the pockets of genuine expansion.

Unite and conquer

So where is the money of the future to be made? Giampiero Bertolini, CEO of Biondi-Santi, advocates focusing on markets, particularly in Asia, where an emerging generation of relatively affluent, middle-class consumers may increasingly graduate from casual wine drinking to premium purchases and fine-wine collecting.

"If I had to put my money on one market as the next big export success story, I would choose South Korea," reveals Bertolini. He emphasises its "sophisticated and increasingly curious consumer base, a strong fine-dining culture, and a genuine appreciation for premium products. I believe there is still considerable room for Italian fine wines to grow there, particularly in the top segment."



Closer to home, he also warns against sidelining Poland and the Czech Republic, "which are sometimes overlooked when discussing emerging markets but are showing encouraging developments in their appreciation of premium wines."

The Czech Republic recorded a 5.4% increase in wine consumption in 2025, reaching approximately 2 million hectolitres, according to the OIV. This suggests that Central Europe may merit considerably more attention from producers.

Meanwhile, Alto Adige-based Cantina Terlano has built a strong presence in the United Arab Emirates, while its commercial director, Klaus Gasser, believes there is "further potential in emerging markets such as Brazil and India".



He adds: "However, we do not expect explosive growth in the next five to ten years, but rather gradual market development. We have also seen positive developments in China, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam. This is also supported by the growing share of white wine in global wine consumption."

Mais vinho, por favor

Leading producers continue to analyse data, develop contacts and try to anticipate where the next generation of wine consumers will emerge. And while strategies naturally differ, there is broad consensus that Brazil and Mexico, alongside India, represent important five-to-ten-year investment horizons.

Most notably, the home of samba and Rio Carnival has emerged as one of the industry's standout performers. OIV data  shows that wine consumption surged by 41.9% in Brazil in 2025, reaching 4.4 million hectolitres. According to the IWSR's H1 2026 figures, total beverage alcohol consumption grew by 3% in Brazil, 10% in India and 9% in Colombia. Mexico was also among the seven markets recording year-on-year TBA growth.



International tourism and a buoyant, growing fine-dining culture are typically cited as the main catalysts for this expansion.

Historically, embryonic and developing export markets were regarded as equivalent to freshmen chugging Blue Nun - easily satisfied and relatively unsophisticated. Yet many societies in Asia and South America are increasingly reflecting cultural trends already visible in Western economies, including moderation, declining consumption of red wine and rising demand for Prosecco and non-alcoholic beer, for example.

"Internationally, we are seeing a clear trend towards white wine, driven by changing dietary habits, lower meat consumption and the versatility of white wines when paired with international cuisine," says Gasser, adding that white wine's rising global share is "opening doors even in historically red-dominated Asian markets such as China, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam".

And, much like in Europe and the US, he believes that "provenance, brand recognition and, above all, a convincing price-performance ratio" will remain key factors in unlocking the wine markets of tomorrow.

No one expects miracles - stakeholders recognise that tomorrow's drinkers will be more selective, consuming alcohol less frequently and remaining increasingly sensitive to value for money.

"I don't actually believe that the fundamentals of great wine change from one generation or market to another," Bertolini concludes. "Our approach is to build relationships before pursuing volumes."

Armed with a savvy export strategy and realistic expectations, producers may yet find gold in them thar hills. Or at least, pieces of silver.